| Title |
A Study on Long-Term Spatial Load Forecasting Using Trending Method |
| Authors |
황갑주(Hwang Kab-Ju) ; 최수근(Choi Soo-Keon) |
| Keywords |
수요예측 ; 추세분석법 ; 수평년도수요 ; 수요전달 ; |
| Abstract |
This paper suggests a long-term distribution area load forecasting algorithm which offers basic data for distribution planning of power system. To build forecasting model, 4-level hierarchical spatial structure is introduced: System, Region, Area, and Substation. And, each spatial load can be decided proportional to its portion in the higher level. This paper introduces the horizon year loads to improve the forecasting results. And, this paper also introduces an effective load transfer algorithm to improve forecasting stability in case of new or stopped substations. The proposed model is applied to the load forecasting of KEPCO system composed of 16 regions, 85 areas and 761 substations, and the results are compared with those of econometrics model to verify its validity. |