| Title |
Prediction of Dynamic Line Rating Based on Thermal Risk Probability by Time Series Weather Models |
| Authors |
김동민(Kim, Dong-Min) ; 배인수(Bae, In-Su) ; 조종만(Cho, Jong-Man) ; 장경(Chang, Kyung) ; 김진오(Kim, Jin-O) |
| Keywords |
Dynamic Line Rating ; Forecast Rating ; Thermal Overload Risk ; Time Series ; Monte Carlo Simulation |
| Abstract |
This paper suggests the method that forecasts Dynamic Line Rating (DLR). Thermal Overload Risk Probability (TORP) of the next time is forecasted based on the present weather conditions and DLR value by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). To model weather elements of transmission line for MCS process, this paper will propose the use of statistical weather models that time series is applied. Also, through the case study, it is confirmed that the forecasted TORP can be utilized as a criterion that decides DLR of next time. In short, proposed method may be used usefully to keep security and reliability of transmission line by forecasting transmission capacity of the next time. |