| Title |
Genetic Programming Based Compensation Technique for Short-range Temperature Prediction |
| Authors |
현병용(Hyeon, Byeong-Yong) ; 현수환(Hyun, Soo-Hwan) ; 이용희(Lee, Yong-Hee) ; 서기성(Seo, Ki-Sung) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2012.61.11.1682 |
| Keywords |
Temperature prediction ; MOS(Model Output Statistics) ; Genetic programming ; Compensation |
| Abstract |
This paper introduces a GP(Genetic Programming) based robust technique for temperature compensation in short-range prediction. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, because forecast models do not reliably determine weather conditions. Most of MOS use a linear regression to compensate a prediction model, therefore it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP is suggested. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days temperatures in Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. The training period of 2007-2009 summer is used, and the data of 2010 summer is adopted for verification. |