| Title |
A Study on the data-based derivation method for the remaining lifetime and probability of failure (PoF) of the pad mounted transformer |
| Authors |
김대한(Daehan Kim) ; 이홍석(Hongseok Lee) ; 조영상(Youngsang Cho) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2022.71.5.723 |
| Keywords |
Pad mounted transformer; Weibull analysis; Statistical life expectancy; Remaining Lifetime; PoF(Probability of Failure); CoF(Consequence of Failure); AMS(Asset Management System); Health Index; RBM(Risk Based Maintenance) |
| Abstract |
In Korea, as power facilities are aging like overseas nations, maintenance and replacement costs of power facilities are expected to increase rapidly. In order to operate power facilities with a limited budget efficiently, it is necessary to introduce Asset Management System (AMS) in maintenance of the power facility in line with the global trend. To this end, it is essential for power companies to predict the remaining lifetime of power facilities and develop Probability of Failure (PoF) in their own way depending on the type and operating conditions of power facilities. Existing studies only calculated the statistical life expectancy of the power facility, but in this study, both of the statistical life expectancy and the condition remaining lifetime are presented in order to assess the PoF of power facility, in which the statistical life expectancy is calculated by using Weibull distributions. In this study, we present the criteria for determining the condition remaining lifetime using Health Index, inspection and diagnosis data of the pad mounted transformer operated by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in the field. In addition, the final remaining lifetime of the pad mounted transformer was derived through the folding function and was converted into PoF using Hazard rate distribution based on the apparent age. PoF derived in this study is expected to be used in the risk matrix of the AMS and useful in establishing the systematic maintenance plan of the pad mounted transformer. |